Everyone knows that general elections everywhere are a chance for politicians to show off just how much they understand about their electorate. In other words, we are ignorant and we should just let them get on with it.

Tomorrow, Tuesday 22 January, Israel goes to the polls. For the uninformed, Israel operates a system of strict PR. Win around 2% of the vote and your party gets in! This means that for over 60 years, Israel has been governed by coalitions of smallish political parties, each trying to prove to a growing electorate that they are not egocentric.

Yes, I am cynical, but for all that, I will be voting bright and early. And I will walk into the polling booth with a smile on my face, knowing that the leaders of most of the factions have totally misread what has happened in the country over the past few months.

First, while the Likud under Netanyahu started the campaign with the largest number of seats in the Kenesset (Parliament), it was always going to suffer. Netanyahu is no great leader, but he has been able to govern for four years through the weakness of others. And suddenly, he has had to face the challenge of two charismatic opponents, Arie Deri (Shas) and Naftali Bennett (Bayit Hayehudi). Both have asked their supporters to “return” to their natural base and this is what the polls indicate is happening, especially with Bennett.

Where does this leave the Prime Minister? The voting is liable to reveal a king, who was never actually wearing any clothes but covered by an aura of arrogance.

Second, economic and social policy has become a factor in this election. Until now, this was rarely the case in the political history of the Holy Land, as defense issues and foreign affairs were dominant in a country surrounded by geopolitical threats. However, social protest of two years ago have left a scar. The financial demise of the middle class has left its mark on many. The blatant ‘handouts’ given to ultra-orthodox groups, Netanyahu’s natural coalition allies, have offended swathes of people.

Possibly, the final straw has been a wave of price rises in the public sector that will only be felt immediately after the election period ends. The media have ensured that this ‘secret’ has made its way into the public domain. The point is that while the government has rightly claimed that its policies has created economic growth – over 3% per annum – this achievement has not been felt by enough of the electorate!

Third, people have tended to vote for decades according to right or left, religious or pluralism. In 2013, there are ploiticians who cut across those definitions. Bennett wears his religious views on his sleeve, but I know of those who barely visit a synagogue once a year and are still prepared to vote for him. Yair Lapid is categorised a man of the centre-left, even though he is clearly capturing voters who are disillusioned with Netanyahu, who himself is located on the right of the map.

I do not know who will win. I have no idea which block will form the coalition. Lurking in the background is a fourth and possibly the most persuasive factor. Netanyahu has positioned himself as man who understood America and who could prevent the creation of a Palestinian state. In the past three months, the UN upgraded the status of its Palestinisn delegation, as relations between Obama and Netanyahu dropped to below freezing. What does this say about ‘ability to deliver’?

I saw the Prime Minister smiling on tonight’s news programme. I wonder what his face will be saying in another 24 hours.